BOL Round Table

basically if we win we are in, right? even if the 4 way tie for second lasts, we have the tie break over kentucky

I don't think so. The issue is that in a 4-way tie, although we beat Kentucky, I believe it goes to head to head between all 4 in the tie.

Kentucky is 2-1 (beating Mizzou and Ole Miss)
Mizzou is 2-2 (beating Ole Miss and Alabama)
Ole Miss is 2-2 (beating Alabama and Mizzou)
Alabama is 1-2 (beating Kentucky)

Note: Ole Miss and Mizzou split.

I believe that is how the tie breaker works, so we need win along with one of the teams above us losing. All 3 of them are in very losable games, so I would assume more than likely, it will be a win and we will be anywhere from a 2-4 seed, but if all 3 of them win, we are at best a 5 seed.

Depending on how you look at it, I am not sure it matters that much. I still think 1 of 2 things need to happen for us to give ourselves a chance to make the field of 68. We have to win 2 game in the SEC tournament.......or make the finals on Sunday. 2 wins would put us in the finals from one of the top 4 seeds, which would be the best of both worlds.

I like the idea of the committee having Alabama on their mind if we are in the finals, thinking there is a chance they have to put us in. Can't hurt, IMO.

Either way, a team like us, or even any of the other bubble teams this year may show that the field was just fine at 64. No one has really come off the bubble in weeks (win or lose) because there aren't any teams below them doing any better. We've lost 3 "must win or you're out" games already and still sit in the first 4 or last 4 out in most of the scenarios. With so many crumbling, we really have a shot if we can go on a 3 game (counting UGA) winning streak.....and we would be favored probably to win those first 2 games.

I'm assuming only Ole Miss and Mizzou lose. I think Kentucky beats Florida at home.

That scenario would have us #2 due to tie break with Kentucky.

Yes and no. Yes - we'd lose the 4-way tie, but we don't necessarily have to have to win to secure a double-bye if I'm reading it correctly.

If OM and Mizzou win, and UA and UK lose, UF/OM/Mizzou would be top 3, and Bama/UK would be tied for 4th with us winning the head to head. That's if Bama and UK both lose and the other two win.

In fact, unless one of OM/Mizzou loses, it's probably in our best interest for us to lose and hope UK loses to UF. That way we avoid anything more than a two-way tie. We wouldn't win any three or four team tiebreaks no matter who is involved. If all 4 teams win it's "technically" worse for us.

Of course, if we lose our NCAA at-large chances go bye-bye completely, so pick your poison. Best thing would be for us to win and hope we get help somewhere else, which is entirely likely. I have a hard time seeing OM/Mizz win on the road and UK beating UF all in one day.

good points. it all comes down to winning the tourney IMO. best chance of that is getting a double bye, but who am i kidding?

Which part seems like the longshot? Them losing or us winning?

Seriously though, we don't seem to catch any breaks with the timing of our schedule. Tennessee is awful and then we catch them at the beginning of a great run they put together in the middle of the conference schedule. We beat Kentucky, but did catch them just as Nerlins was getting things together and before he got hurt. Florida limps through a few weeks with injury problems, only to see just about everyone get healthy in time for our game........And now, we are getting a UGA team that is starting to look like they have things going pretty well coming off 2 big wins for them. I guess you can add that we caught LSU at their place just as O'Bryant really began to take over and maybe show that he could be the best player in the league going forward.

UGA has been playing well of late, so I actually think we'll have to play an amazing game to win tomorrow. Of course, "amazing" for us is a completely relative term. But UGA controlled their home games vs UK and UT, and had Ole Miss dead to rights in Oxford a few weeks ago. It won't be easy.

I would not be surprised to see Mizzou beat UT, but I think that's our best chance in the OM/Mizzou scenario to get help. UT will come out blazing at home.

I have no idea how to handicap Florida/Kentucky. UK is coming off a short turnaround while UF has been on cruise control for days. It would be "Senior Day" at Rupp, but I'm not certain UK actually ever has seniors anymore. Maybe they can rename it "players who are currently shaving" day. Calipari has this weird way of mindf***ing his players and Florida may feel like they have nothing to play for. They're almost assured a 2 or 3 seed, and they've locked up the conference tittle and overall #1 SEC seed. I can't imagine Donovan sandbagging, but who knows.

Ole Miss is a complete mystery.

I'd say my order of most to least likely would be:
Most likely: UT beats Mizzou
Florida beats UK
Bama beats UGA
Least likely: LSU beats OM (only because I could see that game going in any number of directions)

But you could flip those 1-4 and it wouldn't sound crazy. Tomorrow should be fun. I'm glad we have an afternoon game and not an early one. I should know by 3 how nervous I need to be. If Florida handles their business at 11 it should take some pressure off.

Palm has us 4th team out.

Make it to Sunday and we're in by the skin of our teeth. If we don't its over.

I just want to get that double bye. A 2 or 3 would be ideal, but I just want enjoy my Thursday evening in Nashville without sweating out a Bama game.

That's the same idiot who said we probably wouldn't get in if we went 4-1 down the stretch with only loss to UF. We are 1-3 so far and he has us with a better chance than he did before.