BOL Round Table

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CrimsonStain said...

This will be very long, like a novel, just wanted to state that up front. There is a great sense of excitement about this team and their potential for having a great season this year. Having said that, it is always fun to strategically predict how the season should pan out, and how each game should play out. Nothing fancy here in terms of trying to assess how this BAMA team should fare this year. Just simple observations of what the coaches have said, what the leaders and other players have said, what talent and experience do we have, how the team has practiced, what our opponents look like talent wise and experience wise, our schedule, what national sport writers are saying, and last but not least what fellow BOLers have said. First up are the coaching staff and team.

I am not going to get into too much detail here because it would be preaching to the choir. We all know the caliber of the head coach and his staff, the talent and experience of the team. There are Champions all around the football complex. The biggest intangible with all involved is how much are they willing to sacrifice in terms of emotional (consistent, detailed mental focus and desire) and physical time and effort in order to repeat. It is difficult to stay that focused, to have the right leaders step up, and the right chemistry to make an undefeated repeat season a reality. I think this year will be much different than the one following the culmination of a season in Pasadena.

Offense; My initial perception of the hire Doug Nussmeier, in conjunction with CNS’s statements of playing the type of offense that fits the skills and talent of its players, is that BAMA is going to be more air attack oriented vs. run oriented this year. I also think this offense will be stronger than last year’s, or years past, and will score a lot of points via the end-zone as opposed to the uprights. I think having Jones back on the line may be the biggest plus for the offense as a leader and player. He has two NCs under his belt, knows what it takes to win, but more importantly knows what it is like to not re-peat. He is the keystone leader of the offense. Next is AJ, loves ALABAMA like no other and will fight for every inch to win, a proven orchestrator of the offense. Also, we just flat out have tons of playmakers on the rest of the offense and come game time I think all will be healthy. However, if there were one area which concerns me a little, and may be the most important to an undefeated season, it is Cyrus protecting the left flank. Should he go down, or not measure up consistently at his key position, it could make the difference in not having an undefeated season or winning the NC. I really like our chances with Cyrus in there, slightly apprehensive without him. From my limited perspective it will be difficult replacing his kind of talent. How about our defense?

Again, not much detail, but here is how I see the defense. Back in the LB corps coaching driver’s seat is Coach Lance Thompson. It says a lot that CNS would rehire Coach Thompson, but the major plus side is that Coach Thompson was able to learn a new defensive perspective from Monte Kiffen. There is no doubt that some of those techniques may find their way into CNS’s pantheon of defensive ideas and schemes. Also, Coach Thompson knows CNS, knows what CNS likes on defense, and overall what CNS wants. Overall the defensive coaching staff improved with the hire of Coach Thompson which should equate into a more productive defense this season. Trying to find the keystone leader on defense is not as apparent as was with Jones on offense. However, I personally like DePriest. Although he does not possess the experience of Nico, he does make up for it with his talent and more importantly his football IQ, his instincts, and knowing where the right adjustments on defense need to be made. Having both Nico and DePriest leading the total defensive together is huge. I also like the senior Lester orchestrating the DBs, and the senior Williams managing the D-Line. Expect Williams to sport the warrior face paint to do battle in the trenches. To find a weakness on the defense, only compared to last year’s defense, and not relative to any other SEC team, it would be the secondary. I do not think it will be as great as last years, with two first round NFL draft picks, but it will be great none-the-less, especially as the season moves along. The defensive line is solid, the LBs are solid, and the secondary will be very strong.

Overall, the offense will be better than last year’s offense. The defense will not be as great as last years. However, with an increased offense, and a slightly lessened defense, the overall team should be just as good as last year’s team. They will be different in their own way, but just as good overall. Alone, they should go undefeated in the regular season, win the SECCG, followed by the BCSNCG. Add in the improved Kicking game and the improved punting game, the chances are exponentially increased. Again, not much detail, there are other BOLers who are much better at that than I am. This was just a holistic approach, without the details, of what the total team looks like. The season’s schedule is up next.

I have broken the season’s schedule down into two sections based off of the bye week. Call it a season cut in half, or two half seasons so to speak. The first half of the season is five games, and the second half of the season is seven games. Both halves should be achieved with no loses. The first half has three games in Tuscaloosa, one game at a neutral site, and then on the road at Fayetteville. What is good about the road game at Fayetteville is that BAMA was at home the week before. There are no back-to-back road games during the first half of the season, and the last two games are in Tuscaloosa. The second half of the season we have four games in Tuscaloosa with the last three of those four games being at home. This is good because of the long, hard hitting SEC season where injuries, bumps and bruises will happen. Less travel is a good thing. There is only one back-to-back road game during this last half of the season and those two games are in Columbia (MO) followed by a trip to Knoxville. I think this is very good for the TIDE. The other road game, LSwho, is in-between two home games. Lastly, our Iron Bowl, which will be in Tuscaloosa and will not play out like the last time we played the BARN at home. Additionally our first teamers should be well rested having only played the first half of football against a less than stellar opponent, W. Carolina. Overall this is a very favorable schedule for BAMA, and one that is laid out nicely for an undefeated run to the SECCG, and the BCSNCG. I think the season’s schedule is as near perfect as one could hope for, an A+. How the games should fare.

Not much to these predictions, and are only meant to be quick snapshots of who we are going up against. The BOLer who is outstanding at scouting reports for the teams that BAMA will play, in my mind, is “Ghost of Bryant.” He is the best at laying out the next opponent. I am definitely looking forward to seeing those write-ups again this season. Here we go.

1. Michigan, Sep. 1 (Dallas, Texas) The strength for Michigan’s offense will be the senior leadership and talent of QB Denard Robinson. Everyone knows he is a playmaker. But there seems to be some questions about the receiving corps. All practices were closed to the public during spring, but coaches are raving about his improved leadership. He played one series, but make no mistake come game time in Dallas he will be ready to make a difference. However, our defense will pull their own weight in making things complicated and disruptive. The biggest weakness for Michigan will be their defensive line. They lost three starters so there will be a big drop off. What is worse for them is that they will be going up against the best offensive line in the country, if not one of the best BAMA has ever had. Our O-Line will be very, very special. Michigan’s defensive strength will be their DB corps. BAMA will put up some major points, Michigan some, but not nearly enough. Also, BAMA just has more experience in big time games, has more talent, and better coaching. CNS has been a master in preparing for the opening game of seasons past. BAMA 41 Michigan 24ish.

2. Western Kentucky, Sep. 8, (Tuscaloosa, AL) Ahhhh the Hilltopers. No chance and not many details worth mentioning. Their biggest playmaker of their spring game was Antonio Andrew, the RB, who finished with 206 all-purpose yards, rushing for 121 yards on 18 carries. Also, their returning QB last year had 12 INTs to 10 TDs. Last year’s stats alone were dismal, finishing the season 7-5, expect the same this year. BAMA 52 Hilltopers 6.

3. Arkansas, Sep. 15, (Fayetteville, AR) This game probably would have been much, much closer had their head coach done a better job of handling a crouch-rocket, which led to other issues, and his eventual firing. He was much better at managing a game than a bike. This will be a factor, because John L. Smith is no Petrino when it comes to being an offensive guru, or head coach of an SEC team. It will ultimately impact the overall offensive performance of the game and the on the field play calling throughout the game. There is no doubt that the Hogs have a great QB in Tyler Wilson with a great tight end Chris Gragg, but their two great WRs are gone. The running game is mediocre and they have a decent SEC O-Line. Without Petrino the overall offensive production will falter, which was their greatest threat against our defense. Our offense will do great against their defense. The defensive line is not exceptionally strong, and historically seems to give up nice chunks of rushing yards. There will be a slight drop off in the LB corps with the departure of their MLB, Jerry Franklin, but they still have OLB, Alonzo Highsmith who is the teams only experienced LB and leading tackler. From my point of view their DBs are SEC average. Ultimately BAMA’s O-Line will win the trench war and will have no issues moving the ball against the Hog’s total D. Our defense will fare well against an overall weakened offense. BAMA 37 Arky 16.

4. Florida Atlantic, Sep. 22, (Tuscaloosa, AL) The owls should stay perched on their team buses when they show up to BDS. Last year they were 1-11. In the 2011 overall FBS rankings they ranked in the 100s in every major category. BAMA will have a field day against this flock of owls. BAMA 60 something, Owls 0.

5. Mississippi, Sep. 29, (Tuscaloosa, AL) Welcome to Ole Miss and the SEC Coach Hugh Freeze. Get ready for a whole new perspective on what it takes to win. Ole Miss will not be ready enough. No brainer in figuring that one out. He at least has eight starters on offense returning, but they are SEC average at best. The leading RB, Jeff Scott, had 529 yards rushing, six rushing TDs, which got him eighth in the SEC for all-purpose yards. Not cream of the SEC crop. The O-Line has three returning starters who are ok. Of the QBs, three of the four played only two games, will be an issue. Defense, there will be new changes based off of Freeze’s wants. The Rebels had a pretty good pass D last year ranked 22nd in the nation. With returning starters they should still be a formidable DB corps. The LBs seem decent with the return of two leading tacklers in Mike Marry and Joel Kight. Both bookends are returning starters as well on the D-Line. However, having said all of that, this Ole Miss D just can’t hang with the dominant line of BAMA, the fast receivers, the strong stable of RBs, and the accuracy of AJ. Ole Miss will have serious trouble moving the football. BAMA 48 Ole Miss 6.

BYE WEEK. BAMA should be 5-0 heading into the bye week. It will be a time to hone their skills, make adjustments, implement new plays into the overall equation, and prepare for the second half of the season.

1. Missouri, Oct. 13, (Columbia, MO) This will be a fun game. I am not for certain but is this the first time we will have ever played these guys in MO? BAMA should not have any problems finishing this game. Mizzou will be pumped and ready to make a statement to the college football world. It will be fun to watch DGB play. I am not expecting him to have a freshman season like Julio. Remember when Julio, as a true freshman, was carrying that pile of LSwho players on his back in “Death Valley.” That was special. DGB not so much, but he is very good. An interesting stat for Mizzou is their BCS automatic qualifier (AQ) which has them listed as #9 in the nation with 48 total wins since 2007. BAMA is #1 on the BCS AQ list with 55 total wins since 07’, funny how that works. Good for Mizzou though being BCS AQ #9. Thirteen starters are returning, six on offense and seven on defense. Not too bad, but overall not too great when going up against a loaded, and very deep BAMA squad coming off a bye week. Their QB, James Franklin is back, and is a pretty good QB. As a starter he was ranked 15th in the nation in total offense, and finished with 2,865 yards and 21 touchdowns passing, 981 yards rushing with a team-best 15 touchdowns. Not too shabby. Their best O-Lineman is LT Elvis Fisher who actually sat out all of 2011 with a knee injury and had surgery, but he will be back. Three other members of the starting O-Line graduated. Expect the O-Line to drop off in productively, and will be a good thing for BAMA in shutting down / disrupting Franklin. They do not have a decent running back corps or starting receivers. Practically all of the starting receivers graduated from last season. Many players across the board seem injured on the Mizzou team. They will need as many as they can get in order to try and keep up with BAMA. The defense will be a serious weak point for Mizzou. Both starting DTs are gone. The total D was ranked 61st in the nation last year. BAMA’s offense will move this Mizzou pile at will. BAMA 41 Mizzou 10.

2. Tennessee, Oct. 20, (Knoxville, TN) Love this storied rivalry, always. You know it is special when smoking victory cigars is part of the outcome. The Vols just have not caught up yet with the TIDE and will not for the rest of the time CNS is at BAMA. Bad news for the Vols. CNS knows how important this game is to the BAMA NATION. BAMA will be ready. Let’s start with coaching. Vols will not match up with BAMAs. That is issue number one. I think Dooley has a great sense of humor, but he is not a top tier SEC coach. Bray is back, and is a pretty good QB going into his third year as the starter. Has decent WRs and the O-Line has a new position coach who will try and revamp a weak O-Line. I expect it to be somewhat improved as UT did only average less than 3 yards per carry last year. They do not have strong RBs. Coach Sal Sunseri is helping to revamp the Vol D, and CNS is not worried. Check out this spring quote, “Sunseri expressed throughout spring that he was pleased with his defense's effort in picking up his complex scheme, which puts the Vols in a 3-4 base defense with multiple packages. There's new terminology at all levels of the defense and in the secondary alone the safeties align differently and the cornerbacks are using more press coverage. Not surprisingly, some Vols admitted they were swimming early on during spring.” (Patrick Brown) They will be treading water when they play BAMA. I’m just not buying that the Vols have the right kind of players to learn a CNS style of D via Coach Sal. Not gonna happen in its first season of implementation. BAMA 37 Vols 20.

3. Mississippi State, Oct. 27, (Tuscaloosa, AL) Had a typical MSU season at 7-5 last year.
Fletcher Cox, a rare MSU first round NFL pick is gone. He was a key component to their D-Line. They will not have a better D-Line than they did last season, and they still had a 7-5 season with Cox. Expect BAMA to dominate this game offensively. MSU’s offense will be missing their starting running back, Vick Ballard, due to the NFL draft. One can expect the productiveness of their running game to falter somewhat. They do have their QB coming back and have a decent WR corps. BAMA’s D will have no issues in handling the dogs. BAMA 44 MSU 10.

4. LSU, Nov. 3, (Baton Rouge, LA) This is the game, again. Seven starters back on offense and eight on a really good defense from last year. This is a major reason they are pre-ranked as high as #1 in some polling. Biggest potential issue / factor will be their new QB and I believe it will be the biggest factor against BAMA. I just don’t think a brand new SEC QB (Never played at GA but was a decent JUCO QB) will be able to effectively (Key word) manage an offense against BAMA. We will see. General thoughts are that LSwho will not pull off what they did in the regular season as they did last year. The loss in NOLA will still sting. I think BAMA affected their overall MOJOness, the wind in their sails. LSwho will not repeat their grand season, they have never been consistent like that. One can expect another nerve racking game though. BAMA 34 LSwho 24.

5. Texas A&M, Nov. 10, (Tuscaloosa, AL) The Aggies have not won a conference in 14 years. Now they are in the SEC Conference. Coach Kevin Sumlin took over the reins as head football coach of the Aggies 6 months ago. He is an offensive guy. With him came new defensive coordinator Mark Snyder. Needless to say the Aggies will be going through a process of learning many new aspects of a new coaching staff. What they have returning. Biletnikoff Award candidate Ryan Swope, WR, set school records with 89 catches for 1,207 yards in 2011. He’s a natural playmaker, plus he had a spring game-high of eight catches for 156 yards. The White team had over 600 yards of total offense. What does this say, decent offense, or weak defense. I’m going with very weak defense. Ryan Tannehill was the 8th overall pick in the NFL draft and his talent will not be replicated with a new Aggie QB. Senior RB Christine Michael is decent but injury prone. The Aggies O-Line, all five starters are coming back, very rare. It is the strength of the Aggies total team. Their center is a senior, Patrick Lewis, who has started since a wee little freshman. He is very good, the center of gravity for the entire O-Line. The rest of the line is young, but with experience. Defense has changed from a 3-4 base to a 4-3 alignment. Also, they have switched OLBs to DEs. So their LB corps will lack much experience, they will be weak. An intriguing quote from their new D-Line coach, Coach Terry Price, in regards to producing ten SEC caliber D-Linemen, “We're not there yet, but we're building that depth up every day in practice.” This is just not going to happen in one SEC season. Expect their D-Line to suffer against BAMA’s O-Line. DB corps will not be SEC caliber. BAMA will run up and down the field when the wagon train comes to town. BAMA 56 Aggies 13.

6. Western Carolina, Nov. 17, (Tuscaloosa, AL) First-year head coach Mark Speir will lead the pack of Catamounts (Large mountain cats). They won one game last year, and all of their loses were absolute destructions. Not much a new coach and staff will be able to do with this team in a short period of time. With all of the nefarious talk about comparing CNS with Coach Paul “BEAR” Bryant (CNS will never surpass him in the legendary nickname category), CNS could follow in his footsteps by not even putting in the first team offense, and the first team defense for this game. The second team could win this 31 to 10. With the first team playing the first half only, second team in the second half, BAMA 60 CAT-A-MOUNTS 0.

7. Auburn, Nov. 24, (Tuscaloosa, AL) Iron Bowl. The BARN has brought in offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler to try and get the offense rolling after finishing 100th in total offense last year. He’s a QBs type of coach. Overall the O-Line is young and inexperienced with one senior, two sophomores, and two redshirt freshman (One is the LT) as the potential starters. They had issues with injuries last year and seem to have some already this year. There are no solid returning QB starters to work with, and the spring did not clear things up either. Not many WR playmakers, other than Philip Lutzenkirchen, in the WR corps. They will try to run more this year but will struggle. Also new is the defensive coordinator, Brian VanGorder, who is implementing a 4-3 scheme. Initially the DB corps and LB corps struggled to grasp it during the spring. There should be more struggles for awhile. Their D-Line is the strength of this BARN squad. Four potential Junior starters with decent experience for form that line. Corey Lemonier will be their center of gravity for leadership and playmaking, such as sacking the QB. They will be SEC good this season. Overall BAMA will be the sharpest Iron in this Iron Bowl. The BARN will again struggle offensively against BAMA. BAMA may struggle running early, but AJ will soften the total BARN D in the first half. BAMA 34 BARN 9.

Total offensive points scored – 544
Total defensive points allowed – 138

That is the season at this early juncture. It would be naïve to think that there will not be some type of injury adversity or any type of game adversity in any given season. However, I believe BAMA will rise to the occasion this year and I am hopeful that everything will fall into place for an undefeated season. They have everything in place to re-peat. In conclusion I know this wasn’t perfect, way too early, just simple estimates, but I hope you guys enjoyed this early season write-up none-the-less. RTR

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Deuce22 said...

Thanks for taking the time.

First off, Arkansas O-line maybe decent, but the running back they having coming back, Knile Davis, is a beast and his back ups Ronnie Wingo and Dennis Johnson are solid, so I would not call their run game mediocre.

Tennesse does not have decent wide recievers. They might have the best 2 recievers in the country (USC could def. claim that though) in Hunter and Rodgers, then you throw in their freak Juco Wideout who at 6'4 220 just ran a 10.3 100 (wind aided) and was recruited by everyone. They might have the best receiving corp in the nation, and Bray will def. be able to get them the ball if he has anytime from his o-line.

Mississippi State has a very good chance of being undefeated when they play us if you take a look at their schedule. They will be better this year than last. The do lose cox on the dline but bring everyone else back and have two big time players in Kaleb Eulls and Josh Boyd. They should be just as good there, and they will be better at linebacker. They will probably have the top corner tandom in the SEC but need to find a replacement at safety for a very good player in Charles Mitchell. Their offense line might not be very good though......

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BuriedAlive14 said...

Still think we lose one or two this year, and the comment about Sunseri was nuts. I pray Sal returns to Bama one day. That man is a hell of a damn coach.

“Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating.” Karl von Clausewitz

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Jos Mit said...

I do not see the scores being that high IMO! This is just my opinion though...We won with a really good passing game in 2010, but did not do the things we did in 09 and 11. 2010 everyone said oh now watch the Offense with our Defense. Defense wins championships and offense wins games. My output on this season in terms of yardage will be similiar with 09 and 11. Having the STABLE of RB's - Lacy, Hart, Fowler, Yeldon - we can be fresh in the 4th Quarter without TR3 and Lacy carrying the load. I do believe however we will have more "big plays". being able to predict what we are going to do on offense is going to be very hard for every Defense we play. We have 2-3 everydown RB's with the Freshmen having good hands out of the backfield. Lacy CAN be an every down RB, but does not NEED to be, and getting 1/2-3/5 of the carries all year sounds ideal. Yeldon will be looking at Richardson like carries in 09. Fowler will be put in to "Finish games". and Dee will be a surprise in his "Home-Run threat" role. AJ is a great QB, but i dont think we will get away from the way we play and win - Pounding the rock. Now to the Defense...

Corners are my #1 concern! Blue and Fulton are great players and will be great, but my concern comes from KNOWLEDGE. Busted coverage, and being unsure to be honest. I do see this defense changing from last year in one main aspect - TURNOVERS! 2011 Defense might not have had the chances because of the amount of 3 and outs, but i think this team with "ball hawks" and "playmakers" in Blue Sunseri and of course Lester and Milliner making this a big part (throw in Collins towards the latter part of the year IMO). Nico Johnson will have to fill the running gaps, and i trust him to take care of the LB core, but i do again see these LB's creating more turnovers, with Hubbard, CJ being able to do multiple things and Vinnie playing some LB roles like Barron in certain packages. Moving to the D-line - Jesse Williams will be a top5 pick, but not because of his film. He will take double teams to open up multiple blitzes. DE's will play a big part in the Michigan game because of their zone blocking scheme. IMO offenses may have better chances on the running game, and will not be scared to take shots downfiled early and often (remeber the X is back on our back, and bigger than ever). We will have to take advantage of this in the turnover department and if we dont we could be looking at a 2010 season (whatever 10-3 really means).

Michigan - 30-13 - Denard makes a few plays early, and the Offense takes awile to get into a groove. A few turnovers by Michigan and the game becomes laughable early in the 4th

Western Kentucky - blowout, and Yeldon puts on a show. 48-3

Ark - "they stand no chance" - Knile Davis takes that to heart and puts up really good numbers, but he cant carry the load. AJ has a career day - 41-24

FL Int- blowout, but not very good looking. Coming off a huge win in Ark offense comes out flat. A few Takeaways by our D - 34-7

Ole Miss - Ole sissy comes off a few good played games, but still losing. Things get worse for them when they roll into town. They quit before half-time, and we press the brakes early - 41-17

Mizz- Newcomers have some hard times ahead, but also have a few bright spots to show on offense, but they forgot the Defense when we roll in- 42-21

Tenn - HICKUP - "theres no way we can pull this out" - Tennessee fan sitting behind me last year. This becomes a crazy game full of all uncertain things happening. AJ's one bad game, and our worst game turnover wise- Middle of the year type game- but its still Tennessee and they always choke later in the game- 24-14

Miss State - (so irrelant i forgot them) - Still Defense is "ok" and we looking ahead a little - Lacy has a great day- 31-10

LSU - "The Game of the Century pt 2" except this is a little diff. Mettenburger has made very few plays and LSU has resorted to a very predictable run, run , pass team. Coming off an underachived game vs. Tenn, we take advantage out of the gate of a few turnovers, LSU keeps pounding it, but cant gain an inch. The LSU fans start to boo as they find put they have no offense - they score late - 28-10 (Landon Collins will make an impact)

Texas A&M - Oh the B12 offenses were so great. Watch Ark and A&M second half and pretend that happened in the first half also. We take the foot off the gas, 42-21

WCC - Oh the fun (for the backups). D-line and O-Line get a rest and Ely gets in towards the third - 52-0

Auburn - IMO they overachieve again by being mediocre and young - they do good enough to keep Chiz around for another year, but his pants start to get a little hot after this one - TJ laughs at the boogs and puts up great numbers - 38-6

“Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating.” Karl von Clausewitz

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