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My guess is at least -20 (but this won't be enough as Bama will cover easily). Remember this is a team that went 7-6 and looked TERRIBLE in quite a few games last year.
Their wins were:
Ga Tech (in OT after a miracle finish by va tech)
Boston College (in OT)
Rutgers (in OT)
By the way... the only games they won away from Lane stadium were BC and Rutgers in the bowl.
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