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Up from "next four out" a few days ago. The good news is, all we have to do is hold serve- easy schedule coming up for the month of February, just take care of business, and teams in front of us will inevitably drop some games. Here's hoping we can make a run at a tournament spot
Tonight is a big game. We win in Auburn and we very well could run the table until UF and Ole Miss at the end of the season barring any injuries. We can beat most every team on our schedule but unfortunately, we can lose to just about any of them as well. I'm hopign we can pull it out tonight and make a little run through February.
I thought it was tomorrow.
Yea it's tomorrow night at 7 pm, but your analysis is spot on! Really can't afford to drop any games until we go to OM/UF
Bama was 8-6 OOC in 2010-11 with a pretty weak schedule when we went 12-4 in the SEC and missed the tournament. That team had 3 "bad " OOC losses. This year's team went 8-5 OOC with a little better schedule and 2 "bad" (but arguably worse) OOC losses.
That season, the SEC-W was legendarily weak and our SOS and RPI suffered from it, as did the perception of our conference schedule. With no divisions this season, it is masked a little bit that we avoid playing Florida, Ole Miss, and Missouri twice, but we still have an easier slate than we could. I don't think the deeper SEC is as bad as the 2010-11 SEC, and with other subtle improvements to the resume, I think 12-4 gets us safely in and 11-5 gives us a better chance than we had 2 years ago.
I'm no expert, but I'd say 11-5 puts us right on the bubble. Amazing how those first round wins in the SEC Tourney never seem to do much for a resume. They are always discussed for the bubble teams (like Bama and UGA two years ago), but their meaningfulness is overhyped. Beating UGA twice at the end didn't work for us then.
Mercer might not look too terrible by the end of the year. They are near the top of the ASun, they beat Florida St on the road too and Florida Gulf Coast, who is at the top with Mercer, actually went on the road and beat Miami.
I had hoped Tulane would fare a little better in CUSA than they have, that one is killing us. The A-10 being so strong is going to keep Dayton's numbers in decent shape so that one doesn't hurt as much and if they were to start winning some it would help us out.
Charleston Southern and South Dakota St are both at the top of their leagues right now and are decent wins for us. SDST much more so than CSU. That is a strong small league they play in.
Depending on what happens with many other teams at this point 11-5 might be a stretch but we would be in the convo I would think.
Edit: Would be 13-5 since there are 18 conf games now.
This post was edited by scott713h 14 months ago
Zero margin for error
Lose to anyone (except uf or old miss) puts us in a must win in one of those upset games
I love this teams scrap. not sure I trust that they can run the table without a slip up
This post was edited by Bama_Lefty 14 months ago
Good point on those 18 conference games now. 13-5 looks considerably better than 11-5. I don't see us going 7-3 down the stretch and missing the tournament, but making it wouldn't be certain.
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