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I differ with you a lot on Virginia. They have a very large RPI number to overcome and you are assuming a lot to go right for them.
St. Mary's has to win against Gonzaga or Creighton. There is really nothing to their resume right now but a lot of wins against teams that won't sniff the NIT or CBI.
NCAA doesn't care what conference you are in. So, your Indiana St logic holds no water. They have very good numbers and some very good wins over tournament teams.
Like I said, Illinois is going to be very interesting. I remember several years ago, it was Georgia or Tennessee I think that got in as an at large with a 15-13 record because they had such a strong SOS which Illinois is going to have.
I don't have much else to add to this.
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