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if you look at the trends that have been set from the 2011 season this Iron Bowl should indeed be a huge margin of victory for us. In 2011 Auburn averaged 25pts/game on offense and 29pts/game allowed on defense giving them a ratio of .86:1 scoring which indeed would be a negative outcome. Alabama averaged 34pts/game on offense and 8pts/game allowed on defense giving them a 4.25:1 scoring ratio. A difference in 3.39
In 2012 Auburn has averaged 20pts/game on offense and 26pts/game allowed on defense giving them a scoring ratio of just .77:1 which again is in the negative. Alabama has averaged 38pts/game on offense and 10pts/game allowed on defense giving us a 3.8:1 scoring ratio. A difference in 3.03.
In conclusion both teams were statistically better in the 2011 season and that resulted in a 28pt margin of victory. Also Alabama is much more statistically worse than Auburn as we have dropped .45 in scoring ratio while Auburn has only dropped .09 in the same category. If you were to adjust the score due to our current ratios we win by about 24 in a perfect world. Of course there are variables not included. Its a home game so the crowd needs to be a factor and injuries are always a key variable in the outcome of the game. Either way we should pound them. In a lot of cases statistics do not matter but due to such large differences this ratio is a pretty safe bet that we get a big win. Also Vegas has over/under at about 46 or so. All the signs are pointing to a 34-10 victory. If I was to bet I would definitely go with over/under but I have no idea which way I would go.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by The Truth67011 17 months ago
Nerd . . . :)
Yeah I know. Can't help it sometimes!
Not sure you can call two years a "trend".
My wife is a statistician, so I'm used to this kind of stuff. Good post.
Yeah maybe my english was a little off but their are a lot of similarities from 2011-2012. Maybe i should have used comparison or something? Either way its weirdly comparable.
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