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I have thought for some time that A&M will have the same dropoff that auburn did after winning the BCSNC in 2010. I compared the two teams players lost and recent recruiting record and come up with the following:
2011 AUBURN returning starters: 7 total (3 offense, 4 defense), 120th (last) in CFB, last in SEC
Previous recruiting rankings
Average recruiting class: Ranked #13.6
Auburn Loses 24 seniors, additional 3 juniors declared for draft
Auburn 2011 record 8-5 (with two extremely fortunate victories with Utah State and Miss State)
2013 TAMU returning starters: 10 total (6 offense, 4 defense), tied for 112th, last in SEC
Previous recruiting rankings
Average recruiting class: Ranked #21
TAMU loses 20 seniors, including 3 declared to draft
In addition, consider the importance of the players lost by TAMU this past season
(Props to huskypup for posting this)
Leading scorer at RB Christine Michael
Leading scorer at WR in Ryan Swope
More than 50% of WR scoring from last year(4 of top 5 starters)
Likely #1 OT in the draft
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th leading tacklers (7 of top 10)
Top 5 leaders in Sacks
Top 4 leaders in Tackles for loss
Also lost starting center
So in summary, Auburn lost a few more seniors/starters, but had been recruiting better. I believe sumlin is a better coach than chiznik, but lets be honest here- they both caught lightning in a bottle (cam, manziel) and benefited massively as a result. Sumlin made a living off of being decent in Conference USA and had one good year before jumping to TAMU.
A&M has a joke of a schedule (7 guaranteed wins) and will drum the cream puffs on their schedule. But in the end, I see them losing to us, one of the Mississippi schools, and one between Arky, LSU, and Auburn (LSU game is late enough I think Miles has them playing well enough to win).
Texas A&M has had one magical year after decades of being mediocre. They cannot completely turn that around after one season. I think are not the juggernaut they have been made out to be.
What do you think?
This post was edited by faceman237 13 months ago
This is a reach IMO. A&M will be very good this year.
I get A&M returns their most important player (Manziel), but they have pretty glaring losses everywhere else and don't have the horses to reload from one year to the next.
One HUGE difference between those teams - one is returning their Heisman Trophy winning QB, and the other did not.
I think Auburn didn't have Cam Newton coming back in 2011, while A&M has Manziel. I don't think Manziel is the player Newton was, but the fact that he's coming back means an Auburn-like skid won't happen.
But just because Manziel returns, that doesn't mean they will have the same or better season in '13. Yes, as you said they did lose some players, and I don't see how, statistically-speaking, Manziel has the same type of season. For example, can he complete 68% of his passes again? Can he pull plays out of his backside like he did against us? I just don't think so.
Have a good day,
This is true, and to be clear I think that they would be like AU returning cam in 2011. They would still have lost most of the games they lost in 2011.
Remember also that Manziel will have an entire off-season of people putting him on a pedestal, see how it affects his preparation.
With Manziel and Jake Matthews back, plus a great stable of RB's and WRs, their offense will still be incredibly potent. I agree that their defense will see some drop off, but that offense is going to keep them in every single game. Their toughest game is against us, and while we have the whole offseason to prepare, so do they. I think we'll probably win, but don't underestimate that offense.
How long until Circle Seven shows up to defend his Aggies ?
My view is that A&M is a sleeping giant. They've got a style of offense that puts up numbers and attracts recruits. Now, because of the SEC tag, they'll get the pick of the litter in Texas. Especially, with Texas down. Combine a quality coach, better recruiting, and deep pockets (facilities), their future is bright. I see them being in top 3 in West for a long time.
You obviously haven't seen Manziel play or followed Sumlin's career.
Manziel is a special player... But people get blinded by QB's and act like they are the only reason a team succeeds or fails. Don't you think he benefited immensely from having great receivers, o-linemen, and tight ends?
And last I checked he doesn't play on defense. QB is not the only position on the field.
What has sumlin's great accomplishment been at houston? He beat PSU in 2011? He was in C-USA and doing above average except for his last year.
This. end of discussion.
Johnny Football led his team to 1 unexpected victory. He won the Heisman based on stats and a weak competition for the award.
Nice job on the stat work, but I have to agree with others that this is a reach.
Having Doug Flutie Redux back at QB makes all the other factors not so important. Will they drop off? Maybe. Collapse? Pretty unlikely.
I agree they won't collapse. Frankly, their schedule is too easy to make a collapse possible. I think that they lose 3 games though, still an OK season record wise. If they played GA or UF in the east I say they lose those easily along with any OOC opponent who has a pulse.
I'll agree that he benefited from an outstanding O line. In the end that won't matter much cuz JM is just that much quicker than everybody else. Didn't Sumlin have an undefeated season at Houston? I can't remember. And he definitely flexed his muscle in the SEC this year. Great discussion, btw
Thanks for the props! But I'm obviously in agreement. Manziel is great, but losses at wr and on defense could be crippling. I point to arkansas last year, and how their wr couldn't be replaced and the D was crippled with the loss of their leading tacklers. Negated Wilson fast.
This post was edited by Huskypup 13 months ago
Sumlin as a HC has the following record at houston:
2008 8-5 (beat Air Force in bowl)
2009 10-4 (lost to Air Force in bowl)
2011 12-1 (bad loss to Southern Miss in conf. champ, beat a 9-3 Penn State in bowl)
Now he went 11-2 at A&M with a very talented/senior heavy football team with JM at QB.
I think he's a good coach, but most of his body of work has been CRUSHING the weak teams in C-USA. I think while at Houston beat two teams from BCS conferences (not sure though). What I think is we should see how he does this year before we crown him a great coach.
The appropriate comparison is A&M fans=Auburn fans. I have lived in Houston for a short time and they are terrible. So regardless of how good the team is next year (I am sure they will still be very good) everyone needs travel to College Station for the game and cheer us to a win. I don't think I could live in Texas another year if we lost.
List of quotes A&M fans have said to me:
"Did you see the game?" - Referring to the Alabama/A&M game
"Yes" - me
"We got up on y'all pretty quick in the first quarter" - A&M fan
"I know" - me
"You are an Alabama fan? Oh...I went to A&M, I'm sorry."
"Did you see where Johnny Football won the Heisman?"
"Who is Ole Miss?"
"Johnny Football had a pretty good game" -heard that after every weekend
"What is National Signing Day?"
"We should be playing in National Championship, we beat y'all"
Most of these quotes come from a few guys that work with me, so I am not speaking for all A&M fans. I am sure they are not all this ignorant about football.
Regarding our loss to TAMU - that was just one of those games we appeared to be "due to lose" - whether it was the fumble that JM recovered in mid air and then threw to a wide open WR bc our defense was playing the fumble; or the 2 bombs that were under-thrown and shouldve been TD's or the pass that hit Bell in the chest and bounced off, only to be intercepted and run back to our 20... we just deserved to lose that game.
That being said - we will kick their ass this year! They will be processed. PERIOD
Breaking in a new offensive line I think we are much less effective on offense but we shut them down on D. I don't see us running away but I see us winning by 10 points with the game not really being in question by the 4th quarter.
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