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Im no expert on vegas odds.. But, either there's a missprint on vegainsider or someone is going to be making a lot of money. I might be a little homerish... But I think we are better than 12.5 pt underdogs vs michigan.
Is this because it's too early to be paying attention to right now?... Or when the bets start rolling in thats when you can get something more accurate.
Please dont flame... Im a casual gambler. Cheers in advance!
We are favorites in the game. The first line actually opened at Bama -17, but has sleadily dropped. The "wise guys" like UM and the points, fwiw.
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Wow. The OP's post went over a lot of heads in this thread. Really makes you wonder.
I think the people who didn't post in this thread are just busy getting second mortgages to play that line.
I think you missed my point. Some of the people who posted ITT took the OP's obviously facetious post and began a serious dialogue about the actual line of the game.
I see what you did there... ;)
yep, I'm hoping we can hang within 12.5 AT LEAST...
1960 Les Paul
Betting on Michigan and "wise" don't belong in the same sentence . . . fwiw.
Maybe. I took the OP to mean that an error had the line had posted Alabama as a 12.5 pt underdog. My comment alluded to people scrambling to scrounge up every available dime to place a bet on Bama +12.5.
With Saban having the last 6 Months to Game Plan for Michigan I will be very suprised if Michigan scores more that 14 Points. the real question is how many points does Bama Score?? I am thinking around 27. Which is a spread of 13 and that covers the spread.
Actually the original opener was more like Bama -8 several months ago. That then climbed as high as Bama -15 I believe. Then money started coming in on Michigan and the line settled around 10.5 or 11 until Bama moved back to -12 to -13 or so most recently. I dont know where the sharp money was bet if it has been bet at all.
The fist line I saw posted was Bama -17.5. Someone on here posted a link to it a couple of months ago. It has steadily dropped since then. Heard a guy on the radio last week say that the wise guys love Michigan in this spot. I say they can have it. No way am I betting against a team with far superior talent, and CNS that has had months to gameplan for it.
Not sure who opened it at 17, but if you go to covers.com and find your game, you can see the line histories from a bunch of major casinos and sites.
All of them opened between 11 and 12 and are nearly all 12.5 now.
17 is a ridiculous opening spread for this game. Even more ridiculous is the idea of a spread moving 5 points without a major breaking news on the status of a crucial player.
If there's evidence that the "sharps" are on Michigan, I'd like to see it. The spread has grown everywhere I can find.
I did too. Huh. Suprised he didn't catch on as fast as us..
I am no betting expert but I somewhat view it a little differently....
I think we win the game but not as easy as many of you all think. I think the coach of UM will have his players ready to play. I think they will play hard and play better on defense than many may believe. We have a lot to lose - they don't. They will be loose and will take more chances on offense - that may hurt them some with our defense or they may hit some early plays.
I believe that CNS isn't sure what he has on defense as a unit because of all the new faces and he wants to see who will be a leader on the field. With that said - I think we will make the field long and not blitz much or take chances ---- at least early on while playing defense. I think that approach will keep the game close throughout.
On offense, the key IMO will be our receivers. Yes we have a great line and great RBs and a proven QB but if our WRs can be a threat then I think we can have a big day on offense - since UM will struggle to match up at all positions.
I see the game being --- UA 24 UM 13
Cowherd has his Vegas guy on last week and he stated that the wise guy money was coming in on Michigan. I think it is about right, Bama by 2 TDs. Close early, but open it up in the second half.
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