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And don't say a miracle, although you may be right (g)
Just for the sake of conversation- and I know it's unlikely- how good must our finish be to work our way in? I know the margin for error is razor thin. I'm thinking, after the UT loss (hurts bad), we have to go 10-2 in the remaining conference schedule to feel good about our chances on selection sunday.
The problems: first off, what're the chances we go 10-2 from here on out? I'd put them at about 5 percent lol. The teams we play over that stretch, outside of OM and UF, are beyond terrible. But knowing Bama basketball like we do, nothing is easy with this bunch and we struggle taking care of business against lesser teams..
Second, any loss to any of those teams will be catastrophic to our resume- almost all of them are sub-150 RPI. We don't gain anything by beating them (they aren't quality wins), we only stand to hurt ourselves if we lose.
What do yall think? How well must we finish the year to sniff an at-large bid?
I agree. I'm not sure we can afford another loss outside of Ole Miss and Florida. The good news is, that is doable.
A near miracle?
Win the SEC Tournament!!!
This is the only way
Never Gets Old
Alabama is right on the cusp right now in terms of RPI, and there's no way to know how other teams will do down the stretch. A couple of teams will fall apart, a couple will come on strong, that's just the way it is.
The Tide is 12-7, with 12 regular-season games to go. I would say 21-10 looks pretty good if it has momentum and can back it up with at least a win in the tournament.
Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri all look great right now, and I don't think that's going to change too much. I don't think there's any way the SEC gets less than four teams in the tournament, so for me the key is for Alabama to get ahead, and stay ahead, of Kentucky in the RPI. Right now Kentucky is 62 and Alabama is 63.
Christopher Walsh covers Alabama football for BamaOnline, 247Sports, and is the author of 18 books.
Just to clarify this post, I think we can only afford two more losses. If we beat Ole Miss or Florida, I think we could afford to drop a game somewhere else. 21-9 should get us in imo. Anything less and I wouldn't count on it.
Huh. I was not aware we played 31 reg. season games.
13-5 with a win over Ole Miss or Florida should do it. 14-4 with a win over Ole Miss or Florida and we are a lock. Without a win over either, probably get in at 14-4 and have to sweat it out at 13-5. Basically, we don't have much of a chance. I think it is very likely that we finish 11-7 or 12-6. I think we win Thu. against the Hogs but then the next 2 games at Vandy and at Auburn are where we will find out what kind of postseason chances we have.
I am very interested to see how Ole Miss does in their next 5 games. Tonight is a huge game for them and Kentucky.
This is about the only feasable way I see it happening....... JMO though
The real answer is that nobody knows and the committee is unpredictable at times. Half the people on here pretend to be experts and make strong assertions that we "cannot" lose more than X games, or that the losses have to be to specific teams...they're just making things up. The committee looks at the totality of the season, and this is the same team that blew out Villanova on a neutral court and lost at Cincinnati on a buzzer beater. The team is not defined by a one-point choke on the road against a bitter rival where we were robbed of a chance to win by poor officiating.
Some teams we think are locks will probably self-destruct and lose their bids while a few teams will pass the "eye test" but fail on their resumes, much like us in 2010. I don't know how heavily RPI is factored into the process, but the more the better. Case in point: road wins over Florida and Ole Miss don't help our RPI any more than road wins against LSU and Auburn, provided we only won two of those games. The committee will see things differently.
Good info. I was going to say we need to upset one of UF/Ole Miss and win the rest because of the bad losses. The rest of the schedule is terrible outside of those 2, but it seems we never win in Nashville. That could be a huge game.
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