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Maybe? No, you are wrong. The stats don't support your line of thinking what-so-ever. Just because Bama made lsu's offense look pedestrian doesn't change the fact that they average nearly 40ppg when they weren't playing Bama. ND doesn' avg nearly what LSU put up and ND hasn't played but one decent defensive team all yr.
Our third down defense isn't anywhere near as good as years past but to say its one of the worst is a stretch. Opponents convert 32.2% of the time which isn't where it should be or where it was last year but Notre dame for context is 34.5%.
I think that Golson will need to have a huge game and that he will need to make third down conversions with his arm. I am not saying he can't do that before you get too defensive but he will need to perform statistically well above average and probably have his best performance of the year to keep it close. Mett was able to that, it can happen
This post was edited by manbearpig7 16 months ago
Congratulations on your picks and predictions.
Nobody is blasting you.
I also predicted those three games would be close, but that has nothing to do with with this game. LSU, A&M & UGA are all far better teams than Notre Dame. That said, I don't take issue with you predicting a close game, I take issue with the absurd notion that Notre Dame's atrocious offense will score 20+ points on our defense. They will be extremely, extremely fortunate to hit double digits. With the possible exception of Eifert, they don't have anyone on the offensive side of the ball that will remotely scare anyone. Moreover, this will be the best defense Notre Dame will have faced all season . . . by far. If Notre Dame's offense can't methodically drive down the field and score touchdowns - and I don't think they can - this won't be a competitive game.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by bama58 16 months ago
There is no question that Notre Dame has a very good SEC-style front 7. The problem for Notre Dame is we actually play in the SEC so our offensive line is very accustomed to playing against front 7s like their. On the flip side their front 7 hasn't faced an offensive line that is even in the same universe as our offensive line. Unless Notre Dame's front 7 will be practicing against the Chicago Bears' offensive line there really is no way for them to prepare for what will confront them in the national championship game. They also don't have the necessary depth in their front seven to withstand the pounding they will endure for 4 quarters.
Hey I also said a lot of ways a team can score 20pts. & that the offense doesn't have to score all 20pts. What part of that didn't you understand? We could have a to that results in points. Special teams play that gives them points? I never said ND's offense would score 20pts. But that they could score 20pts. overall.
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ND played close games against Purdue, BYU, Pitt and Michigan, the kind of teams Alabama would blow off the field, and in Michigans' case we did blow off the field.
Im not getting the ND love fest, the more you check into their season the more you realize they could easily be a 2 or 3 loss team ranked outside of the top 15.
Meanwhile Bama played LSU, A&M and UGA down the stretch, all better teams than anyone on ND schedule.
Do you think that ND's OL and DL are as good as LSU's from a year ago? I don't really think it is close. I think LSU was much better and deeper.
Interested to see your analysis. By the way I agree that a team with a stout OL and DL rarely get dominated. I'm just not sure they are that stout. I think they are good. But not great and I don't think good is enough to overcome the deficiencies they have at a lot of other places.
I agree with MBP in that they have to be able to get good qb play to keep it close. And if it is close. Anything can happen.
Thanks for the reply. I guess where we differ is that I am just not sure how talented ND really is.
I think they are pretty good on the OL, above avg at RB, avg at WR, great at TE, and below avg at qb. On the D side they are good on the Dl, good at LB, and bad in the secondary.
They are also avg in special teams.
I just don't see them matching up. FWIW, I said the same things about LSU, A&M and UGA (although I did believe we would pull away late against UGA and win by about 2 tds). I just didn't see us botching a fake punt, throwing and int in the endzone, letting them complete a fake punt or watching them block a FG for a TD. If those things happen again then I believe ND will be in the game. If they don't. I don't think the game is close.
Don't know what to think of this...you and me agreeing and all. :)
I would have to agree with this also. I really hope we win but I'm not as confident as some on here about it. If we play they way we are capable of playing then I believe we have a good chance at a win. But ND has as much time to prepare for us as we do them and their coach is pretty good. Not saying he is on the level as coach Saban but I think they will give us a good game. JMO.
I should have been clearer. What I mean is I think we may see ND perform similar to how LSU played us on offense. Golson has the ability to push our secondary like we've seen in our three biggest games this year. Key word being ability. You are 100% correct from a stat point of view. And I agree they haven't played a D like ours I am just concerned about our safety play and our secondary breaking down with a mobile qb. Roll Tide
Not a flame but do you care to give any reason why you think an ND team that avges 27 pts a game is better than an LSU team that avged 37 pts a game in the SEC and also played 5 teams ranked in the top 10 a year ago? If they hadn't play Alabama twice they would have avged over 40 a game.
Again, not a flame. I just don't see what you see and am looking for some insight. As mentioned above, against top 10 D's (Michgian included by the way) they never scored more than 20 pts. Twice they scored only 13 pts and won. Just curious as to what makes you think their O is better.
I have just watched them a bunch this year (I live in Ohio and my bestfriend is an ND fan) so I watch them about every week. I watch that offense and think...man could Vandy beat these guys? Now I will admit that sometimes teams just have IT. ND has some of that. We'll see if that IT shows up against Bama like it did against BYU, PITT, Stanford, etc.
IMO the only way they stay in this game is if we turn the ball over and give them a chance. That is the only way any team this year has stayed with us (or just flat kept it away from us like A&M did). If we dont' give them points and have turnovers in the RZ like we did against UGA, LSU, and A&M then we win big IMO. And I think all those teams are better than ND. Especially on O.
Legitimate concerns. I just find it hard to believe that Kelly is going to beat Saban with a team that has alot less talent. I'd be shocked. Add in getting beat by a very avg freshman qb. I just think I'm going to be truly shocked if that happens.
I really think we have to screw it up to keep it close. Much like I thought against Michigan (a team equal to ND IMO).
Alabama is going to put Golson into third down situations often with some degree of length (>5 yards). We almost know that because it's happened to literally every team this year. Alabama's opponents had more third downs than Alabama in basically every game and absolutely every meaningful game. Reconcile that with that fact that Alabama is number one in the conference in time of possession and 5th in total plays. We are the best defense in the country in terms of number of 1st downs but 18th in 3rd down conversion D. The evidence is quite clear that we are the best 1st and 2nd down defense in the country but are more susceptible on third down in the passing game. Bottomline is that you are going to face third and reasonably long against this Alabama defense and your QB HAS to move the chains with his arm for you to have a chance to win.
UGA, A&M, and LSU converted 50% from 3rd down. We won two out of three of those game but every other BCS opponent converted about 25%. The difference was QB play on third down and for Notre Dame to have a chance, they will need an effort from Golson substantially similar to Murray, Johnnie Football, or Mettt.
100 percent agree. What I will also add is that teams found a weak spot (LSU started this) and then the other teams you mentioned capitalized on it. I find it hard to believe Saban will not find an answer to that over the next few weeks. I mean the LSU and UGA WRs made some great plays as well. I actually think Smith is going to be a great addition in Nickel (and has already proven it as I'm not sure we beat UGA with Sunseri in the game).
I'll also add that we turned the ball over in those games as well. Something that is very uncharacteristic of us. Not making an excuse but I really think the LSU game took alot out of this team and I think they were beat up (I know other teams are as well) and struggled to make it through some of that mentally which cause some of the uncharacteristic mistakes. I think we will be zoned in and play a game like we saw last year in the title game and to start the year against UM.
I will be shocked...I mean totally shocked if Saban is outcoached by Kelly and beaten by a very avg qb with over a month to prepare. IMO if the game is within 10 pts then that means Saban was outcoached (although I would definitely take that b/c it means we won). We have way more talent across the board and are better at nearly every position on the field and deeper. Most importantly, I believe the greatest difference is at the qb position. And that is big IMO.
U mention turning the ball over. Do you not find it odd. That against every top team we have played. That we have lost the most to's? That tells me something is a little off with this team.
There could possibly be something to that. As I mentioned earlier. I think this team played wore down and uncharacteristic with TO's and mental lapses in a couple games down the stretch. Something I think will be fixed in the preparation (it has every year Saban has been here).
I will ad that It tells me that we tried to throw the ball too much IMO. Something I hope we figured out with the UGA game. We also turned it over twice against LSU last year only to play much better in the NC game. That has been a pattern since Saban arrived.
You are also not including Michigan in your classification of top teams. We didn't lose the TO battle that day. They were definitely in the top group of teams that ND played. I would also say taht ND had to get 6 TO's to beat them by 1 TD and was shut down by Michigans D.
As I mentioned earlier. Sometimes teams just have IT. Maybe ND does. But on paper I see them as about the 4th or 5th most talented team we have played this year. About like Michigan and not as talented as LSU, A&M or UGA (and it's not very close IMO). Close in the front 7 but that is where it ends IMO.
I guess that is why I predict closer games. I'm not big on looking at games from paper perspective. I just say logic says. If two top teams are playing. It's gonna likely be a close game imo. & this year all of them have been. Except Michigan & Miss St. One of which was at the start of the year. The other after we was still on a very good roll.
We have got to eliminate the turnovers. If we win the turnover battle by 2-1, then we win 28-10. Will be close if we lose the turnover battle.
21 to 0 notre dame has a weak offense and the quaterback is not ready also we will run the ball effictively just like stanford did
Like I said earlier. I predicted the same outcomes for the 3 games you mentioned. I just don't think this ND team has faced near the competition or has the talent as any of the teams you mentioned. So I view it as differently I guess.
I would also say that logic says that an SEC team will blow out a Norther team in the NC game, too. Wouldn't you (considering it has happened each time the northern team came in with a better record in the NC game)? Logic wouild also tell me that a team that won 41-14 and was up 31-0 midway through the second qtr is much better than a team that beat the same opponent 13-7, with less than 250 yds of offense and needed 6 turnovers (many unforced by the way) to do it. I would say logic says that top teams from the north and south do not end up in close games. If you are going to use logc it should be done in a way where all factors are included. Not just the number one and two ranking. We seen how that has looked in the previous NC games where the north squared off against the south and last year against LSU.
This is just where I am coming from so you know. I definitely think we had a hole in our D. That was exposed against LSU and A&M hit on it also. I believe that hole closed and was not as big a deal however over the last couple games of the season with the addition of Smith. I believe it will close even more with a month to prepare for a game. I also believe that b/c we had so much inexperience on D many of our guys that hadn't played before wore down going down the stretch. Because of that mental lapses occured. It happens in nearly every sport where a young player hits a lull toward the end of the year. It just so happened we happend to play 3 teams in the top 8 over the last 5 games. We also had more turnovers later in the year (even against AU and WKU mind you and not just against the good comp) b/c we had alot of attrition on offense and more inexperienced players had to play. Fowler, White, Hart, Black and Bell were guys that had been a big part of our O preparation in the offseaso and into the year. Until each of them became injured. B/c of this some younger guys got more PT and the timing wasn't perfect. Separately, I do not believe any of this is a huge issue but when they are combined you end up having a drop off when you play top 10 teams in consecutive weeks and the number 3 team in the nation with an axe to grind against you.
It is my belief that the team that plays in Jan will look more like the one that played against MSU in the bowl game in 2011, and llike the team that played LSU and Mich after substantial rest in the past year.
Like I said. I'm not saying there isn't any validity into what you are saying. But for the game to be close IMO, Saban is going to have to be outcoached bigtime and/or we are going to have to turn the ball over like crazy (something we have not done in big games with time to prepare). Saban is also going to have to be beat by a team with a very avg freshman qb playing in his first game against an SEC defense. Saban is also going to have to be outschemed enough that a much less talented team outplays his. While Stanford is good (and Golson played a terrible game) it isn't as big, fast, or as complicated as Bamas.Not just saying that logic says the number one and number two teams will be a close game (b/c that isn't neccessarily true wheen you look at history of the bcs)
I supposed all the negatives things I mentioned could happen but I believe it is highly unlikely given the circumstances IMO.
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