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Games to keep an eye on today/tonight(bubble talk)

  • Yes, we lost at Ole Miss. Yes, I realize we have a lot of work to do and the odds are very stacked against the Tide dancing.

    But as I said earlier this week, most of the bubble teams will lose this week. So far so good there(straight up lulz at Maryland for getting thumped by UNC at home and also at Minnesota for losing at Nebraska). Hope is alive for us, barely breathing but alive.

    1. Charleston Southern won this morning in their conference tourney. Every little bit helps.

    2. Georgia vs Kentucky. Really it's a win-win since UGA is close to being top 100, but it would be more beneficial to see UK lose for both our bubble chances and our SEC seeding.

    3. Butler at UMass. Go dogs. Knock UMASS off the bubble.

    4. Florida State at UVA. The Hoos cannot lose this one or they're behind us for good.

    5. Oregon at Colorado. Would be a major win for CU's resume. Go Ducks.

    6. Oregon State at Utah. Go Beavers, every little bit helps.

    Twitter: @ProducerAP

    Theta

  • To add these are the games that directly effect our RPI tonight....

    How the Crimson Tide Can Boost Their RPI Today
    Charleston Southern needs to beat Winthrop
    Game Info: 11:00 AM
    Georgia needs to beat Kentucky
    Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: ESPN
    Lamar needs to beat Nicholls State
    Game Info: 7:30 PM
    Oregon State needs to beat Utah
    Game Info: 8:00 PM | TV: ESPNU

    CapstoneAlum05

  • everybody go out and do volunteer work this wweekend and help an old lady cross the street

    maybe the good lord will give us a break

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    rolBAMAballs

  • Theta said...

    Yes, we lost at Ole Miss. Yes, I realize we have a lot of work to do and the odds are very stacked against the Tide dancing.

    But as I said earlier this week, most of the bubble teams will lose this week. So far so good there(straight up lulz at Maryland for getting thumped by UNC at home and also at Minnesota for losing at Nebraska). Hope is alive for us, barely breathing but alive.

    1. Charleston Southern won this morning in their conference tourney. Every little bit helps.

    2. Georgia vs Kentucky. Really it's a win-win since UGA is close to being top 100, but it would be more beneficial to see UK lose for both our bubble chances and our SEC seeding.

    3. Butler at UMass. Go dogs. Knock UMASS off the bubble.

    4. Florida State at UVA. The Hoos cannot lose this one or they're behind us for good.

    5. Oregon at Colorado. Would be a major win for CU's resume. Go Ducks.

    6. Oregon State at Utah. Go Beavers, every little bit helps.

    Let's break this down.....its win the SEC tourney or we're dancing at home in the NIT.

    JHM96

  • Theta said...

    Yes, we lost at Ole Miss. Yes, I realize we have a lot of work to do and the odds are very stacked against the Tide dancing.

    But as I said earlier this week, most of the bubble teams will lose this week. So far so good there(straight up lulz at Maryland for getting thumped by UNC at home and also at Minnesota for losing at Nebraska). Hope is alive for us, barely breathing but alive.

    1. Charleston Southern won this morning in their conference tourney. Every little bit helps.

    2. Georgia vs Kentucky. Really it's a win-win since UGA is close to being top 100, but it would be more beneficial to see UK lose for both our bubble chances and our SEC seeding.

    3. Butler at UMass. Go dogs. Knock UMASS off the bubble.

    4. Florida State at UVA. The Hoos cannot lose this one or they're behind us for good.

    5. Oregon at Colorado. Would be a major win for CU's resume. Go Ducks.

    6. Oregon State at Utah. Go Beavers, every little bit helps.

    Yes bubble teams are losing but they are teams behind us or not projected to be in the field. No teams projected to be in the field have lost and in fact they have strengthened their cases last night. You need projected teams in to have bad losses. All four last four-in have better resumes than us.

    Tiderfl

  • Most likely yes but I'd say there is a five percent chance that if we make the finals we could slip in. The committee doesn't like a ton of surprises on Sunday so maybe they say Alabama is on the bubble playing in the finals of their conference tournament. Put EM in and lets move to the next team. Not likely but definitely a possibility.

    CapstoneAlum05

  • CapstoneAlum05 said...

    Most likely yes but I'd say there is a five percent chance that if we make the finals we could slip in. The committee doesn't like a ton of surprises on Sunday so maybe they say Alabama is on the bubble playing in the finals of their conference tournament. Put EM in and lets move to the next team. Not likely but definitely a possibility.

    Sigh, there is 0% chance that we get an at large bid unless we win the SEC Tourney. Some of you need to really pay attention to the teams that get the last spots in ever year. Truth is even if we had beaten Ole Miss and Georgia this weekend, and made the SEC Tourney finals we would have still be on the outside looking in. Florida was our last slim hope to do something that would have given us a slim chance at getting an out large bid

    This post was edited by robert1975 on 3/7/2013 at 3:35 PM

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    robert1975

  • robert1975 said...

    Sigh, there is 0% chance that we get an at large bid unless we win the SEC Tourney. Some of you need to really pay attention to the teams that get the last spots in ever year. Truth is even if we had beaten Ole Miss and Georgia this weekend, and made the SEC Tourney finals we would have still be on the outside looking in. Florida was our last slim hope to do something that would have given us a slim chance at getting an out large bid

    That's not the truth. Clemson got in a couple years ago with zero top 50 wins and an RPI that would have been around ours if what you said would have happened.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by scott713h on 3/7/2013 at 4:04 PM

    scott713h

  • The only way Alabama's Basketball team goes dancing this month is if they make a Harlem Shake video.

    jimtom27486

  • jimtom27486 said...

    The only way Alabama's Basketball team goes dancing this month is if they make a Harlem Shake video.

    That's funny.

    CapstoneAlum05

  • scott713h said...

    That's not the truth. Clemson got in a couple years ago with zero top 50 wins and an RPI that would have been around theirs if what you said would have happened.

    How many really bad losses did that Clemson team have Scott? Cause those 4 bad losses we got is what killed us this year.

    Edit, I looked it up, that Clemson's team worst lost was South Carolina who had an rpi rank of about 140. That was their only bad loss for the year, it was a much better resume than ours this year.

    Yes RPI ranking for your team is important, but so is not having multiple bad losses. of the 12 or so called bubble teams talked about the last few weeks, there were like only 2 other teams that had as many bad losses as we do and those 2 teams aren't getting in either. Our rpi did not kill us this year, it was the god awful losses that we had, which to be honest with the exception of last year have happened under Grant the other 3 years he has been our coach.

    I know people kept putting stock in Lunardi's last 4 in stuff (not you, but others), but Lunardi has whored himself and his bracket out to espn for a payday, his bracket changes day to day based on what helps espn promote games they have scheduled during the week, which by the way is why he had us and Ole Miss in his last 4 in earlier this week.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by robert1975 on 3/7/2013 at 4:21 PM

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    robert1975

  • robert1975 said...

    How many really bad losses did that Clemson team have Scott? Cause those 4 bad losses we got is what killed us this year.

    Really don't know Robert. I know UAB got in that year too and they didn't beat anybody, but had a pretty good RPI. Kinda like Southern Miss this year. It is different year to year. I have been trying my best to keep up with it this year and it has given me a headache trying to figure it out more than any other. I'll say this if what you said, beat Ole Miss, Georgia and 2 in the SECT happened we wouldn't have been left out. We would have probably been in the play in games, but in.

    scott713h

  • scott713h said...

    Really don't know Robert. I know UAB got in that year too and they didn't beat anybody, but had a pretty good RPI. Kinda like Southern Miss this year. It is different year to year. I have been trying my best to keep up with it this year and it has given me a headache trying to figure it out more than any other. I'll say this if what you said, beat Ole Miss, Georgia and 2 in the SECT happened we wouldn't have been left out. We would have probably been in the play in games, but in.

    uab had an rpi in the mid 30s that year, correction, that was before they expanded the bracket, but it was uab's rpi that got them in that year over us

    teams with 3 top 100 losses and 1 top 200 loss, with some of those coming at home like we did, aren't going to make the field over teams with similar rpi ratings that don't have those losses hanging over their heads. It is just that simple, those losses without any top 50 wins to balance them out were always to cause us to lose the tiebreaker in the selection committee minds this year.

    This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by robert1975 on 3/7/2013 at 4:26 PM

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    robert1975

  • robert1975 said...

    uab had an rpi in the mid 30s that year, correction, that was before they expanded the bracket, but it was uab's rpi that got them in that year over us

    teams with 3 top 100 losses and 1 top 200 loss, with some of those coming at home like we did, aren't going to make the field over teams with similar rpi ratings that don't have those losses hanging over their heads. It is just that simple, those losses without any top 50 wins to balance them out were always to cause us to lose the tiebreaker in the selection committee minds this year.

    Maybe so, but like I said it is a year to year basis. It is hard to compare different years. Heck, it is different people selecting every year. We might not have made it in. We have better SOS numbers than some of these teams too, how much they use it this year is really anybody's guess. We have a nice round about number of 7 top 100 wins. That's more than some others that might have more top 50 wins but fewer solid wins. Who knows how much they weight that. It is just fun to try and project it year to year. I don't think it is completely over for us this year. Hanging by a thread, but not over.

    scott713h

  • scott713h said...

    Maybe so, but like I said it is a year to year basis. It is hard to compare different years. Heck, it is different people selecting every year. We might not have made it in. We have better SOS numbers than some of these teams too, how much they use it this year is really anybody's guess. We have a nice round about number of 7 top 100 wins. That's more than some others that might have more top 50 wins but fewer solid wins. Who knows how much they weight that. It is just fun to try and project it year to year. I don't think it is completely over for us this year. Hanging by a thread, but not over.

    yeah I know we have a lot of 50-100 wins, but the key their is that fe w of those are going to be in the tourney.

    I have noticed that when it comes down to the last few at larges given at each year, normally either bad losses or having more wins against other teams that are going to be in the Tourney is what normal is the difference (everyone concentrates on top 100 wins, but it is actually the number of wins against other tourney teams that get the selection committee attention)

    yes there is a little difference in what each different selection committe values, but consistantly year after year the last teams in either have 1) much higher rpis than the other last few teams (that was uab that year), 2) have multiple wins against teams that are already in the tourney, or 3) only have at most 1 bad loss on their resume, hopefully not at home. It's those 3 things that 95% of the time decide the last few spots, SOS normally only comes into play if the previous 3 mention things are similar or if the OOC schedule is in the 200s like it was for one of Gotfried's teams that got left out.

    It is what it is this year, if we don't lay an egg at Auburn, our 7 50-100 wins would have helped us. That 4th loss (and one over 200th to boot), just killed us. I knew then that unless a lot of teams in front of us just completely fell apart we were in serious trouble to make the tourney.

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    robert1975

  • Anyone saying this team has no shot unless they get an auto bid is misguided. It's a very slim glimmer of hope, yes, but 4 SEC teams are in the final 8 slots fighting for 4 spots.

    The SEC will get 3 or 4 teams in. Much will happen in the next week or so. Watch.

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    NashTide

  • People in here killing my dreams

    Twitter: @ProducerAP

    Theta

  • This is from ESPN today on the bubble watch. Sorry if posted twice, I put it in the wrong thread earlier.

    Alabama [19-11 (11-6), RPI: 59, SOS: 85] I'll be honest: I find it very difficult to have much of an opinion at all about Alabama. It's just a totally nondescript team this season, with no real analytical identity, and that goes for its NCAA tournament resume, too. For example: A 7-7 record against the RPI top 100 is nice, but it doesn't get you very far when none of those wins came on the road (and only one, over Villanova, came at a neutral-court site) and none of them were against a team ranked higher than Kentucky in the RPI or better than ... well, I don't know -- Tennessee? South Dakota State? Point is, there are no real wins here, but there are bad losses (Dayton, Mercer, Tulane, Auburn) and absolutely nothing to get you excited about the Crimson Tide's prospects in the bracket. It's not a bad team, but it's hardly a good one. The overall effect is: meh.

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    IvoryTusk

  • Theta said...

    People in here killing my dreams

    Yeah I know, I'm tired of my NCAA dreams dying to.

    Truth is if we hadn't stunk it up to crappy teams this last Dec and hadn't stunk it up in, oh can't remeber the name of the OOC tournament, but the Late November tourney we lost all 3 games to awful teams to 2 seasons ago. Well if we don't do those 2 things, we are all sitting here today happy that we were about to be in the dance for the 3rd straight year and happily arguing about what our seeding would be.

    That's what really is depressing, we have had the talent to be in the tourney for 3 straight trips, and all we got to show is one, 1 and done tourney trip. That is what really needs to sink in, this year should have been our 3rd tourney trip under grant but awful, crappy OOC losses to teams much less talented than us that we had no business lossing to have kept it from happening.

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    robert1975

  • robert1975 said...

    Yeah I know, I'm tired of my NCAA dreams dying to.

    Truth is if we hadn't stunk it up to crappy teams this last Dec and hadn't stunk it up in, oh can't remeber the name of the OOC tournament, but the Late November tourney we lost all 3 games to awful teams to 2 seasons ago. Well if we don't do those 2 things, we are all sitting here today happy that we were about to be in the dance for the 3rd straight year and happily arguing about what our seeding would be.

    That's what really is depressing, we have had the talent to be in the tourney for 3 straight trips, and all we got to show is one, 1 and done tourney trip. That is what really needs to sink in, this year should have been our 3rd tourney trip under grant but awful, crappy OOC losses to teams much less talented than us that we had no business lossing to have kept it from happening.

    Exactly. Some of those losses are inexplicable. Teams sometimes suffer a bad loss, but we go on streaks each year where we lose to a lot of bad teams at once, thus putting us behind the 8 ball all year. To top it off the conference is so weak now that even having a good conference record isn't enough to boost our numbers.

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    IvoryTusk

  • An interesting stat from the RPI. Of teams in the 40-60 range. Alabama is 60th and Southern Miss is 42nd. They are the only two teams in that range with 0 top 50 wins. Alabama however has 7 Top 100 wins compared to 3 for Southern Miss. So how is Southern Miss so much higher in RPI. The difference is the road wins. Southern Miss is 9-6 on the road this year, while Alabama is 4-8. Both teams have 2 wins in neutral site games. Southern Miss also has one road win against a top 100 team while Alabama has none. The RPI has always valued road wins more than conference home wins.

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    IvoryTusk

  • CapstoneAlum05 said...

    That's funny.

    Thank you. Only thought about it because my daughter was telling me about them making one after Church last night.

    jimtom27486

  • Southern Miss road wins..

    Georgia State
    Morehead State
    Liberty
    Sam Houston State
    Georgia
    Rice
    SMU
    Tulsa
    UAB
    East Carolina

    Their road wins are large in number, but so many of them are easy wins.

    Twitter: @ProducerAP

    Theta

  • True, but that's how the RPI is. One can say the same thing about USC, Auburn, MSU, Texas Tech, LSU and Georgia. None of those are great road wins. The RPI has always valued road wins more, and so has the committee. When 3 of your road games come against the bottom 200 teams it doesn't help.

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    IvoryTusk

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    Macdaddy7930