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As many of you heard (repeatedly) early in the year, Alabama had a terrible SOS in the computers compared to Notre Dame. Sagarin, fwiw, ranks you according to how good you would need to be to win at least 50% of your games. Since we played a back-loaded schedule, I was curious where the numbers ended up.
Alabama - 74.19 -34th
Notre Dame - 74.69 -31st
So, after the UGA game, the computers have our schedules almost dead even. And that's ignoring the fact that it considers a slate of 12 average teams harder than 6 cupcakes and 6 top ten teams, even though actually making a NC is much harder with the top 10 teams. Note that our SOS was 30th after the Ole Miss game, and 39th prior to UGA. So, our strength of schedule got *worse* after having played TAM and LSU, but jumped back up quite a bit after playing UGA.
Why exactly the shift?
Because we played Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina, Auburn, UT, and Mizzou. That's a bunch of teams all with losing records, so 6-6 is rather doable. Playing TAM and LSU was overwhelmed out by Western Carolina and Auburn because SOS only cares on how hard it is to win 50% of your games. It's easy to beat WCU and AU.
BUT, by adding UGA, you need *7* wins to make .500 on the year. We got a huge boost, because now we actually had to beat *someone* with a winning record to go 7-6. And you can't help but wonder, how high would the SOS go if it measured the difficulty of going, say, 11-2? I think it would prove to be monumentally higher, and the recent shift backs this point up.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Huskypup on 12/17/2012 at 8:11 PM
Edited to make a clearer point. I know the math is complicated and I'm probably not great at explaining it, but if you give me a little to go by maybe I can make it clearer. I like the discussion.
I get what you're saying. I didn't know that was how Sagarin's SOS formula worked. It seems to be a pretty poor measuring stick.
+1 for the insight.
"That's the way it goes. But don't forget, it goes the other way too."
"Remember boys, flies spread disease...so keep yours closed." George Luz
You were a Math Major right....Basically here is my take. We played some Better Teams than ND and we played some teams that sucked more than ND. So we have Higher Peaks and Valley's. Overall we still beat them by 2 TD's.
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