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The case for and against Anthony Grant

  • Phoenix Bama40488 said...

    Good analysis........here's a negative you didn't point out as well.......

    We run a system with pressing that is dependent on having multiple bodies out there to interchange. While you can't fault Coach for the injuries, you can call into question his decision to be 3 people (basically 20%) under in scholarship count. That's either being too narrow (not putting the work in) or being able to deliver. Even if we had 3 OK 3* type players in positions 11-13..we could press more consistently...leading to more cheap baskets.

    So...with his position that it's better to have no one than someone he may not want long term...he has no one in those slots. Mistake in my opinion...this could have cost us 2-3 December games and the tourney bid.

    If he just gave out scholarships to meet numbers, then he would be faulted for that.

    I would hate to see the criticism if the team had a losing record.

    Possible

  • Well which is it, was Lacey overrated or has he not been developed? It's a fact that we have 7 guys on the team who were top 100 overall players on TOS (4 were top 50 overall), plus Gueye was a 4* JUCO.

    So either we've signed a bunch of talented guys and done nothing with them, or we've signed a bunch of overrated busts and made the best of it. If it's the latter, then Grant needs to learn to recruit based on more than pulling up a recruiting website.

    And that still doesn't explain why he left 3 holes in the roster that make it impossible to play the style he's said he wants. On top of that we signed the 3 international guys that he never saw in-person before they stepped on campus. Sounds like he needs to work harder on the recruiting trail, in my uneducated opinion.

    spasticity

  • UAgrad09 said...

    I'm not trying to be a @$$ hole either. I appreciate your care and enthusiasm. I am right there with you about wanting to have a bball program to be proud of. I just am going to hold off judgement until we get some legitimate post players. ( I know it's his 4th year yada yada). But Moussa and Jacobs were suppose to be better than they are, so between those 2 not living up to their 4 star grades and Carls injury, the staff is really handcuffed down low. I will criticize the fact that they have not forced NJ to develop a right hand. That's junior high school crap that is fixable and at a college level is inexcusable. I agree with your pros and I think that R cooper will really be a weapon fr us this year and down the road. When he moves back to his normal position (3 guard) next year, he can really be a match up problem for defenses. I have been VERY pleased with his progression from year 1 to year 2

    Good post

    scottchap ●

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    Bama Tree ●

  • UAgrad09 said...

    I would disagree on the player development to some extent. You are right our post players have not improved offensively. But our guards I would disagree. Take out of your mind how players were viewed coming in...is Trevor Lacey better this year than last, yes. Is Rodney Cooper better this year than last, yes. I think the same for Levi and Releford as well.

    2012 stats PPG. Fg%. 3p% TR. 14.5. 46.6. 39.2 TL. 11.9. 42.1. 38.1 RC. 11.1. 43.2. 30.3 LR. 7.7. 40.0. 32.3

    2011 stats PPG. Fg%. 3p% TR. 12.0 48.2 27.3 TL. 7.3. 41.4 30.1 RC. 5.1 38.4 29.0 LR. 6.5 38.5 26.8

    They all nearly improved in all 3 offensive categories from 2011 to 2012. I picked those 3 categories because those are the main 3 that show offensive production. Doesn't include assists, rebounding, etc. Which most have improved also. Sometimes perception isn't always reality.

    I ran the numbers on these guys for True Shooting %, which I think says more than the raw stats.

    Summary is Releford has improved a good bit each of the last 2 years, Randolph improved a TON from last year (but is still the worst shooter of the 4), Cooper improved some, and Lacey is basically the same. For some reason Lacey's FT% has dropped from 80% to 69% this season.

    Player TS-2013 TS-2012 TS-2011
    Trevor Releford 0.6016 0.5860 0.5563
    Trevor Lacey 0.5467 0.5475 -
    Rodney Cooper 0.5086 0.4949 -
    Levi Randolph 0.5028 0.4578 -

    spasticity

  • spasticity said...

    Well which is it, was Lacey overrated or has he not been developed? It's a fact that we have 7 guys on the team who were top 100 overall players on TOS (4 were top 50 overall), plus Gueye was a 4* JUCO.

    So either we've signed a bunch of talented guys and done nothing with them, or we've signed a bunch of overrated busts and made the best of it. If it's the latter, then Grant needs to learn to recruit based on more than pulling up a recruiting website.

    And that still doesn't explain why he left 3 holes in the roster that make it impossible to play the style he's said he wants. On top of that we signed the 3 international guys that he never saw in-person before they stepped on campus. Sounds like he needs to work harder on the recruiting trail, in my uneducated opinion.

    What is with all the hate for TL?? My gosh if he isn't gone and in the NBA in 1 year he must suck. Not every 5 star guy is a one and done. TL has been on campus a yer and a half. Some take longer to develop than others. Some fans think that because Kentucky did it for some many years in a row with one and done guards that every 5 star guard should be like that. Have a little patientence. Hell look at UK this year...not all 5 stars are ready in 1 year.

    UAgrad09 ●

  • spasticity said...

    I ran the numbers on these guys for True Shooting %, which I think says more than the raw stats.

    Summary is Releford has improved a good bit each of the last 2 years, Randolph improved a TON from last year (but is still the worst shooter of the 4), Cooper improved some, and Lacey is basically the same. For some reason Lacey's FT% has dropped from 80% to 69% this season.

    Player TS-2013 TS-2012 TS-2011 Trevor Releford 0.6016 0.5860 0.5563 Trevor Lacey 0.5467 0.5475 - Rodney Cooper 0.5086 0.4949 - Levi Randolph 0.5028 0.4578 -

    They ran a stat during the game last night that I found interesting.

    During this run of W's, our shooting percentage from the floor and from 3 was nearly identical to that of our opposition. In fact, shots made and attempted were even nearly identical, in addition to shooting pct.

    The area where we've outscored our competition has actually been from the free throw line, which surprised me as we've been under 70 percent from the line for most if not all of the conference season.

    If we were even a few percentage points higher from the line, on average, we'd be winning games more comfortably. We make it to the line more often than our opponents. We just have to do a better job of converting when we get there.

    signature image

    NashTide

  • scottchap said...

    Good post

    Thanks , I am just tired of reading all of the "the offense we run sucks" posts. If it sucks so bad, then go tell that to Billy Donovan because they run basically the same stuff as us. The difference is UF has Murphy a stretch 4 that can shoot and P young who is not the most skilled center but he is athletic and can catch and finish from 2 feet. This is what I am hoping Jimmie Taylor and Shannon Hale can give us in their time at Bama. And I am jumping ahead a little but also don't expect Hale to come in and be an offensive juggernaut like Murphy the second he steps on campus. Murphy averaged 3 and 4 points a game his first two years at UF.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by UAgrad09 on 2/21/2013 at 1:56 PM

    UAgrad09 ●

  • NashTide said...

    They ran a stat during the game last night that I found interesting.

    During this run of W's, our shooting percentage from the floor and from 3 was nearly identical to that of our opposition. In fact, shots made and attempted were even nearly identical, in addition to shooting pct.

    The area where we've outscored our competition has actually been from the free throw line, which surprised me as we've been under 70 percent from the line for most if not all of the conference season.

    If we were even a few percentage points higher from the line, on average, we'd be winning games more comfortably. We make it to the line more often than our opponents. We just have to do a better job of converting when we get there.

    I agree and that's frustrating. We weren't exactly great at the line last year and we've gotten worse.

    2012-13: 68.1% (tied for 212th)
    2011-12: 71.1% (tied for 90th)

    spasticity

  • UAgrad09 said...

    What is with all the hate for TL?? My gosh if he isn't gone and in the NBA in 1 year he must suck. Not every 5 star guy is a one and done. TL has been on campus a yer and a half. Some take longer to develop than others. Some fans think that because Kentucky did it for some many years in a row with one and done guards that every 5 star guard should be like that. Have a little patientence. Hell look at UK this year...not all 5 stars are ready in 1 year.

    Not trying to hate on Lacey. I just hear people defending Grant from both sides on that. The point is we've signed more than enough highly rated guys to put a competent team out there. It's either on Grant for not recruiting well enough, or for not developing well enough. It's one or the other. Lacey has played almost 2 full seasons now, he's not a raw true FR.

    spasticity

  • spasticity said...

    Not trying to hate on Lacey. I just hear people defending Grant from both sides on that. The point is we've signed more than enough highly rated guys to put a competent team out there. It's either on Grant for not recruiting well enough, or for not developing well enough. It's one or the other. Lacey has played almost 2 full seasons now, he's not a raw true FR.

    From a guard standpoint this team is competent. We are getting production from them night in and night out. I will give you that our post play recruiting/development has been sub par, but that has nothing to do with TL and the development of our guards. The reason I bring him up is because he is the one you mentioned. And what is wrong with averaging 12 points, 4 Rebs, 3 assists and 2 steals a game. Pretty solid for a true sophomore.

    This post was edited by UAgrad09 on 2/21/2013 at 2:49 PM

    UAgrad09 ●

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    BBay

  • UAgrad09 said...

    From a guard standpoint this team is competent. We are getting production from them night in and night out. I will give you that our post play recruiting/development has been sub par, but that has nothing to do with TL and the development of our guards. The reason I bring him up is because he is the one you mentioned. And what is wrong with averaging 12 points, 4 Rebs, 3 assists and 2 steals a game. Pretty solid for a true sophomore.

    I was just responding to others mentioning TL specifically, including the OP. I really like him as a player. In fact I really like all of our players, I think we have a great collection of talent (other than being short on post players). We just don't have a great *team* and the reason has become pretty obvious to me the last few weeks.

    spasticity

  • I'll throw some more stats out for you guys, since I can't stop looking at kenpom.com. This compares the average Gottfried season to the average Grant season with Tempo, Offensive Efficiency, and Defensive Efficiency (all are ranked out of 345 teams).

    I especially find Tempo interesting, since both guys openly talked about running a fast-paced offense, but actually did the exact opposite.

    CMG (2003-2009; 2003 is as far back as kenpom goes)
    avg rank in Tempo = 200th
    avg rank on Offense = 37th
    avg rank on Defense = 88th

    CAG (2010-2013)
    avg rank in Tempo = 279th
    avg rank on Offense = 120th
    avg rank on Defense = 24th

    Are we really getting a better product here?? As much as I like defense in all sports, these numbers don't cut it.

    spasticity

  • Nash- I downvoted you last night for seeming like a complainer. My apologies. You're obviously a supporter and looks like you go to many games (home and away). You've put a very good analysis together and one that makes sense.
    I like your passion and wish more had your objective views on this team.

    Thank you and +1 to you.

    signature image

    The Dynasty is Here! Roll Tide

    BamaBrown43

  • spasticity said...

    I'll throw some more stats out for you guys, since I can't stop looking at kenpom.com. This compares the average Gottfried season to the average Grant season with Tempo, Offensive Efficiency, and Defensive Efficiency (all are ranked out of 345 teams).

    I especially find Tempo interesting, since both guys openly talked about running a fast-paced offense, but actually did the exact opposite.

    CMG (2003-2009; 2003 is as far back as kenpom goes)
    avg rank in Tempo = 200th
    avg rank on Offense = 37th
    avg rank on Defense = 88th

    CAG (2010-2013)
    avg rank in Tempo = 279th
    avg rank on Offense = 120th
    avg rank on Defense = 24th

    Are we really getting a better product here?? As much as I like defense in all sports, these numbers don't cut it.

    The fact that you are comparing the two tells me all I need to know. You know how many winning records in the SEC CMG had in his 11 seasons with Bama?? 3. CAG has had 3 in a row in his first 4 years. And dont give me the league sucks now crap b/c its not like the SEC has been a juggernaut the last decade and a half. The fact that you are even questioning whether CAG is an upgrade from CMG is ludacris. The proof is in this season, look at what he has done with a VERY talented preseason top 5 NC State team.

    UAgrad09 ●

  • spasticity said...

    I'll throw some more stats out for you guys, since I can't stop looking at kenpom.com. This compares the average Gottfried season to the average Grant season with Tempo, Offensive Efficiency, and Defensive Efficiency (all are ranked out of 345 teams).

    I especially find Tempo interesting, since both guys openly talked about running a fast-paced offense, but actually did the exact opposite.

    CMG (2003-2009; 2003 is as far back as kenpom goes) avg rank in Tempo = 200th avg rank on Offense = 37th avg rank on Defense = 88th

    CAG (2010-2013) avg rank in Tempo = 279th avg rank on Offense = 120th avg rank on Defense = 24th

    Are we really getting a better product here?? As much as I like defense in all sports, these numbers don't cut it.

    Interesting numbers for sure.

    Nicely done. The most shocking thing out of that whole list to me is that we were actually 37th defensively under CMG during his tenure. I'd have thought our offensive tempo #'s would've been better under CMG but the defense would've been worse. Quite the opposite.

    Bottom line is you have to be efficient with points per possession, especially if you play slow like we do. I'd have expected our offensive #'s under Grant to be lower given the tempo issue.

    Like many others have said recently, if we could just knock down wide open shots we'd be fine. We've missed a ton of good looks lately. Even point blank shots around the basket aren't falling. Love or hate CAG, he can't go out and make the shots for them.

    signature image

    NashTide

  • BamaBrown43 said...

    Nash- I downvoted you last night for seeming like a complainer. My apologies. You're obviously a supporter and looks like you go to many games (home and away). You've put a very good analysis together and one that makes sense.
    I like your passion and wish more had your objective views on this team.

    Thank you and +1 to you.

    Don't toot his horn too much for going to away games. He said he went to Vandy game...judging by his name he probably rode his bike (g). But seriously, I agree with you, I enjoy his analysis and civilized discussions I have had with him.

    UAgrad09 ●

  • NashTide said...

    Interesting numbers for sure.

    Nicely done. The most shocking thing out of that whole list to me is that we were actually 37th defensively under CMG during his tenure. I'd have thought our offensive tempo #'s would've been better under CMG but the defense would've been worse. Quite the opposite.

    Bottom line is you have to be efficient with points per possession, especially if you play slow like we do. I'd have expected our offensive #'s under Grant to be lower given the tempo issue.

    Like many others have said recently, if we could just knock down wide open shots we'd be fine. We've missed a ton of good looks lately. Even point blank shots around the basket aren't falling. Love or hate CAG, he can't go out and make the shots for them.

    Am I reading it wrong, does that not say 88th rank on defense under CMG??

    UAgrad09 ●

  • UAgrad09 said...

    Am I reading it wrong, does that not say 88th rank on defense under CMG??

    You read it correctly - 37th offensive ranking.

    BBay

  • UAgrad09 said...

    The fact that you are comparing the two tells me all I need to know. You know how many winning records in the SEC CMG had in his 11 seasons with Bama?? 3. CAG has had 3 in a row in his first 4 years. And dont give me the league sucks now crap b/c its not like the SEC has been a juggernaut the last decade and a half. The fact that you are even questioning whether CAG is an upgrade from CMG is ludacris. The proof is in this season, look at what he has done with a VERY talented preseason top 5 NC State team.

    What exactly does that tell you? You think I'm an idiot for comparing our last two head coaches?

    Look I wanted CMG gone years before they actually fired him, because I could see with my eyes that the product on the floor was consistently bad. I said that even in seasons we made the NCAAs, and I'll say it again now. Yes we're winning basketball games more often than not, but we've never looked like a well-coached team under Grant.

    Frankly the fact that you cling to Grant's SEC records tells me all I need to know. I believe in evaluating the team for what it is, not comparing it to other bad teams.

    And btw Gottfried has actually done ok at State. The five years before he took over, they were around .500 every year with an avg rank of 79. His first year they made the S16 and were ranked 35th. This season they're 40th so far. I'd take that over what we're seeing right now.

    spasticity

  • UAgrad09 said...

    Am I reading it wrong, does that not say 88th rank on defense under CMG??

    You are correct. My mistake....I knew our defense couldn't have been that good. Should've double-checked.

    :)

    signature image

    NashTide

  • UAgrad09 said...

    Don't toot his horn too much for going to away games. He said he went to Vandy game...judging by his name he probably rode his bike (g). But seriously, I agree with you, I enjoy his analysis and civilized discussions I have had with him.

    I don't live in Nashville, fwiw.

    signature image

    NashTide

  • NashTide said...

    Interesting numbers for sure.

    Nicely done. The most shocking thing out of that whole list to me is that we were actually 37th defensively under CMG during his tenure. I'd have thought our offensive tempo #'s would've been better under CMG but the defense would've been worse. Quite the opposite.

    Bottom line is you have to be efficient with points per possession, especially if you play slow like we do. I'd have expected our offensive #'s under Grant to be lower given the tempo issue.

    Like many others have said recently, if we could just knock down wide open shots we'd be fine. We've missed a ton of good looks lately. Even point blank shots around the basket aren't falling. Love or hate CAG, he can't go out and make the shots for them.

    Someone else pointed this out, but you read it backwards. Gottfried averaged 37th on offense and 88th on defense. To be honest, I was surprised the defense was as good as 88th.

    spasticity

  • UAgrad09 said...

    The fact that you are comparing the two tells me all I need to know. You know how many winning records in the SEC CMG had in his 11 seasons with Bama?? 3. CAG has had 3 in a row in his first 4 years. And dont give me the league sucks now crap b/c its not like the SEC has been a juggernaut the last decade and a half. The fact that you are even questioning whether CAG is an upgrade from CMG is ludacris. The proof is in this season, look at what he has done with a VERY talented preseason top 5 NC State team.

    Here's a metrics-based look at the league under the two coaches - for comparison's sake. Obviously the stronger a league is, the more difficult it is to win games in said league.

    Under CMG:

    98-99 -- SEC Conference RPI: 2 .... # of bids: 6
    99-00 -- RPI: 5 ...# of bids: 6
    00-01 -- RPI: 2 ...# of bids: 6
    01-02 -- RPI: 1 ...# of bids: 6 (Alabama in as a 2 seed)
    02-03 -- RPI: 1 ...# of bids: 6 (Alabama in as a 10 seed)
    03-04 -- RPI: 2 ...# of bids: 6 (Alabama in as a 8 seed)
    04-05 -- RPI: 6 ...# of bids: 5 (Alabama in as a 5 seed)
    05-06 -- RPI: 3 ...# of bids: 6 (Alabama in as a 10 seed)
    06-07 -- RPI: 1 ...# of bids: 5
    07-08 -- RPI: 5 ...# of bids: 6
    08-09 -- RPI: 2 ...# of bids: 3

    Under CMG, league's average overall RPI was 2.7. Average # of invites to tournament from SEC was 5.5 per season.

    Same stats, under CAG:

    09-10 -- RPI: 4 ...# of bids: 4
    10-11 -- RPI: 6 ...# of bids: 5
    11-12 -- RPI: 3 ...# of bids: 4 (Alabama in as a 9 seed)
    12-13 -- RPI: 8 ...# of bids: Let's assume 3, which seems like a safe bet right now**

    Under CAG, league's average overall RPI is 5.25. Average # of invites to tourney is 4.

    Clearly, no one here is unhappy with the way we're winning league games, but the league seems to be much more watered down now than it was when CMG was here, and CMG was actually safely making the tournament in what was a better conference...

    signature image

    NashTide

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